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According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.What do you think of the A-share market in 2025?

What do institutions think of the trend of A shares next year?According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.Hualong Securities recently released the 2025 A-share investment strategy report, which believes that from the release of the new "National Nine Articles" to the introduction of incremental financial policies on September 24, the bottom of the market will be established. The new "National Nine Articles" is the third "National Nine Articles" in the capital market. The three "National Nine Articles" plan the path of "stable development → healthy development → high-quality development" in the capital market. On April 12, the new "National Nine Articles" released stable market expectations, pushing the capital market into a new stage of high-quality development, and the market moved towards the 4.0 period. On September 24, a package of financial policies proposed to activate market risk appetite and boost the market quickly in a short time, and the market bull market pattern appeared. It is expected that the loose policy will continue in 2025, which is expected to drive the continuous improvement of economic fundamentals and enhance the performance growth expectations of listed companies. The bull market is expected to continue to be interpreted. It is estimated that the economic growth rate will remain around 5% in 2025, and investment and consumption will become important driving forces for growth. The global economic growth rate will remain resilient, and there will be external disturbance factors in the market, but the impact may be limited.

According to the report on investment strategy of A-share market in 2025 released by central china securities, the A-share market will reverse the downward trend for three consecutive years under the comprehensive effect of economic and policy interweaving, and in 2024, it will come out of a small market with two waves of first suppression and then promotion. In 2025, it is expected that the focus of the long-short game in the market will focus on whether domestic macro-policies protect the stock market to maintain confidence and stabilize expectations. Considering the policy intention reflected in the underlying logic of "striving to boost the capital market", the main line of further deepening the reform policy of the capital market will focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and make efforts to deploy in promoting mergers and acquisitions and improving investors' returns. It is expected that the A-share market will generally maintain a volatile upward trend.Hualong Securities recently released the 2025 A-share investment strategy report, which believes that from the release of the new "National Nine Articles" to the introduction of incremental financial policies on September 24, the bottom of the market will be established. The new "National Nine Articles" is the third "National Nine Articles" in the capital market. The three "National Nine Articles" plan the path of "stable development → healthy development → high-quality development" in the capital market. On April 12, the new "National Nine Articles" released stable market expectations, pushing the capital market into a new stage of high-quality development, and the market moved towards the 4.0 period. On September 24, a package of financial policies proposed to activate market risk appetite and boost the market quickly in a short time, and the market bull market pattern appeared. It is expected that the loose policy will continue in 2025, which is expected to drive the continuous improvement of economic fundamentals and enhance the performance growth expectations of listed companies. The bull market is expected to continue to be interpreted. It is estimated that the economic growth rate will remain around 5% in 2025, and investment and consumption will become important driving forces for growth. The global economic growth rate will remain resilient, and there will be external disturbance factors in the market, but the impact may be limited.[Institutions are optimistic about the three major directions of 2025! 】